Japanese Rocket ModelsThis past Tuesday, Iran launched a ‘research rocket’ towards the heavens in their pursuit of building a viable domestic satellite launch program.  Congratulations to them for the attempt, and kudos to the Iranian PR machine for having Ahmadinejad issue the launch order.

If only Japan were half as organized.

Delays have pushed back Japan’s GX Launch Vehicle program from 2005 to 2011.  The mid-size rocket is a two-stage vehicle being jointly developed by public and private sectors.  But there are some serious issues in the way as neither party really knows who should be responsible for what.

Status Quo Maintained

Development of the GX began in 2003 with the private sector taking charge of producing the rocket’s first stage and designing the whole system.  IHI Corp., one of the major players in the project, is now saying the government should also become part of the private end of the project.  The proposal was tabled at a performance evaluation subcommittee meeting of the Education, Science and Technology Ministry’s Space Activities Commission and, oddly enough, was not outright rejected.

The project has faced substantial delays over the years, resulting in the six year first-launch setback.  Although the group claims “engine trouble in the second-stage” as the reason, the amount of infighting and responsibility-shuffling going on has slowly built to fever pitch.

During the meeting it was discovered that Japan’s space agency, JAXA, had hidden some of their problems from the Space Activities Commission.  The explanation, as it turns out, is that JAXA didn’t deem it necessary to report their issues because they were not yet in the production stage.  However, problems arose later linked to design flaws, causing several project delays and increased costs.

How any management system can believe these setbacks can occur without regular progress updates to the rest of the team is beyond me.

A Comedy of Errors

Due to the gross lapses on both sides of the public and private fences, the SAC launched a review of the GX rocket project.  Confusion about role-sharing in the development of Japan’s first mid-sized space rockets seemed to top the list of things gone wrong.

At the first meeting of the subcommittee this past week, officials from the private sector are said to have strongly urged that project role sharing be reviewed.  Citing increased burdens, the private companies all but said they wanted the government to pay for the incompetence of their management styles and inexperience with said technologies.

Yay for Japanese ingenuity.

The companies also asked that JAXA take charge of parts of the project that are seen as the responsibility of the private sector.  An example of this would be the coordination of the rocket system, which is currently scheduled for launch sometime in 2011.

What I find interesting is the fact that the 2011 launch is only intended to demonstrate the actual performance of the applied technologies in space, rather than act as the ‘go-live’ date.  For a country tat markets itself as being forward thinking, this January molasses-like progression of rocket development is disheartening.

But then, I guess we shouldn’t expect too much from a country where Celeron processors are the norm in 90% of all computers.

One of the company officials is on record as saying that “initially, the demonstration rocket was to be developed by the government, but the job was passed on our side because the project is being led by the private sector.  We are asking for this responsibility to be returned to the government.”

However, a JAXA official responded by saying their role was only to deliver the second stage of the GX.  A role they have so far failed to live up to.

No Better Than A Divorce Negotiation

Other members continued to bicker amongst each other for the duration of the meeting with one of the commission members comparing the private-public rift to a divorce negotiation.  Considering the lack of trust that is found on both sides, one is forced to wonder if the project should continue at all.  With the lack of public support in any kind of space technologies, it might be time to pull the plug on this failed attempt to build the domestic technology profile and outsource the launching of television and communications satellites.

The companies’ reasons for these complaints are two-fold:  They don’t have the cash, and they don’t have the brains.

Because engine development by JAXA was delayed, the private end had to continue paying the American firms that provides the first-stage engines.  One of the company officials said that they needed between ten and fifteen billion Yen just for securing engineering staff at the firm, which gives them the right to demand government compensation for the expense.  While I can certainly feel for the private firms that went ahead and put American rocket scientists on retainer for the development of the new engine, I can’t help but wonder why they even trusted JAXA to follow through with their end of the bargain in the first place.  Japan’s space agency hasn’t been on time for a single project in the entire history of the organization.  What made these other companies even hold JAXA to their word?

Of course, there are other problems now, as the first stage of the rocket was going to be little more than a modified Atlas-3 rocket strapped onto the JAXA-designed apparatus.  The company that made the Atlas-3 has halted production of the engines in favour of the Atlas-5’s.  One of the main differences between the Atlas-3 and 5 models is the size of the fuel tanks, as the 5-series are much larger.  This means the rockets would have unnecessarily large launch capabilities.

A review of the entire system would also be needed, should an alternative to the Atlas-3 be chosen, which is expected to cost upwards of 45-billion Yen.

Kill It

The GX project is a joint venture with two federal ministries, JAXA and a few private companies led by IHI Corp.  Each were initially required to shoulder about 15-billion Yen in costs, but this amount has already been long spent and there’s nothing to show for the waste.

The private firms have also established a new organization called Galaxy Express Corp., a joint venture firm for entering the global satellite launching business using the GX-series rockets.  Unfortunately, the delay in JAXA’s development of the second-stage engine has already postponed the project by six years, and other emerging nations will like have their domestic satellite programs complete long before the local firms stop fighting with each other over responsibilities and expectations.

While the idea of uniting the private and public sectors for this grand project was a great idea on paper, it’s clearly not a sustainable project going forward.  For the sake of the private companies, as well as JAXA, I hope the program is taken offline and put on hold indefinately.