April 9th, 2008Blu-ray Is Not The Future
Earlier this week I was reading an article in a weekly paper about the HD-DVD and Blu-ray battle that was recently won on the side of Sony. Despite the high journalistic quality of the article, and the great references they made to Toshiba’s faults and how Sony had used the lessons learned in the VHS/Beta format wars to heart, I was left wondering why people are still talking about Blu-ray at all. Despite what the global media outlets would have us believe, Blu-ray is dead. Not only is Blu-ray dead, but it was never a real contender to begin with.
The 21st Century’s Answer to Magnetic Tape
Blu-ray is an amazing feat of technology, giving us the ability to cram 50 GigaBytes of data onto a single 5¼” disc. This is the same size of disc that we had used throughout the 90’s with a general understanding of its 700 MegaByte limitation, which later became 4.7 and 8.4 GigaBytes as the recordable DVD became widely available. With such a surplus of storage space on these discs, it only makes sense to use them for the high definition movies that we’ve started to demand as our home televisions have increased in size, clarity and capability.
So if Blu-ray is the perfect solution for delivering HD video, why am I saying it’s dead? Blu-ray is dead because it’s five years too late.
Internet has become a key player in the lives of over 50 million people around the world. Video sites such as YouTube, MovieFlix and NetFlix already allow us to watch streaming content and, while the video quality is still a few years away from being up to the task of feeding a 42″ LCD with a steady stream of HD-quality audio and video, it’s getting lots of people interested in using the internet to retrieve movies that may or may not be available at the local movie rental shop. Companies such as MovieLink and CinemaNow have already been selling legal movie downloads for two years, and there are plenty of other startups not far behind.
Because of this, when people download their movies, the video is not going to be written to disc before being enjoyed on the home theatre system. Instead, the data is going to be read directly from something much older than the Blu-ray, but far more important in everyday life…
The hard drive.
The Rise of Network Storage
Network storage is not a new idea, but it’s starting to gain quite a bit of popularity with the home market. People are connecting computers to the TV and seeing the possibilities for more immersive gaming experiences, easier movie watching and, perhaps best of all, the ease of using an older computer as a DVR (Digital Video Recorder). On top of this, home networking has matured and many people are sharing more than just the internet over their wired and wireless connections.
Considering how many people have a high-speed network connection at home, it no longer takes a great deal of time or energy to leave a computer on while at work and download a movie, TV series, or any combination of media. Regardless of whether the source of the material was legal or not, it’s a regular occurrence that will soon need to be addressed as families use more and more hard disk space. Many people might be temporarily content to “download and delete,” but these habits will not survive long term.
What’s the solution? A home storage server.
I’ve mentioned a few times how my network storage needs had doubled during 2007 to sit at a value just shy of 4 TeraBytes. This is a large number for sure, but it’s nowhere near the amount of storage that most homes will have in place by 2012. Families will soon be storing insane amounts of data on a central computer that will be available to all family members and (almost) any networked device. Family photos, movies, music, personal backups … the list of possible uses is as diverse as the populations across the globe. We’ve become accustomed to instant access to information through the internet as well as at work and school, so why should our computing habits at home be any different?
This trend is already taking hold, and I’m willing to bet a good amount of cash that 90% of the people reading this article will have a home server by 2015, if they don’t have some solution in place already. Regardless of internet speeds, streaming technologies or optical disc capacities, there is little chance of people not having a basic server in use at their home within the decade.
What Does This Mean For Blu-Ray?
As I had mentioned above, Blu-ray is an incredible feat of engineering and will continue to amaze us with it’s data capacity as Sony and other vendors perfect the 100 GB and 200 GB versions of the disc over the coming years. However, the role of Blu-ray should not be the same as it has been for CDs and DVDs. The days of renting and buying our digital entertainment on hard media are almost over. To that end, Blu-ray should instead be marketed as the most cost effective long-term storage solution it is.
Optical storage mediums will continue to play a vital role in information exchange and backup in the first half of the 21st century, but it’s time consumers stop throwing good money into non-upgradeable technologies and instead invest in devices that can easily be upgraded through simple hardware replacements and codec updates. The sooner we do this, the sooner we can start pushing the next big challenge in home data storage: backups.
Excellent post, and really quite obvious when you think about it! With traditional TV becoming obsolete in Japan in 2011, a lot of people (myself included) will be throwing out their old televisions and shopping around for something new. I’m pretty sure by that time, many of them will choose a TV/PC combo instead of a plain TV. That, of course, will be a major step towards a central home computer/server.
Awesome post! I agree.
~jw
Wow! I never thought about it like this, but it seems so clear.
Honestly I was born in 89, in my entire life I have bought around 5 cds. It just makes sense to me, and I would venture to say most of my generation with access to the internet, to get music you like on the web.
I will say that I have purchased many dvds, however, so perhaps movies on discs ( especially with their large file size) aren’t as completely obsolete as you make it seem. (Though you won’t see me forking out the dough for a blueray player… which I guess you thought of).
I guess what I am trying to say is: ++ I agree, would read again.
Some valid points, but certainly nothing that hasnt already been written about extensively. The author also fails to recognise that many home cinema enthusiasts, and even mums and dads love the idea of have a disc with case and jacket on their shelf.
You are right. People have compared this to the VHS/Betamax battle but it is not the same. Blu-ray may have beaten HD DVD but like you said, it’s end is near. We can see it already. All forms of media are on the raod to digital. Even hard books seem so anachronistic now. Why carry a book around? Why buy a physical book?